Telecoms boom leaves rural Africa behind

JOHANNESBURG/FREETOWN (Reuters) – While mobile phone usage has exploded across Africa over the last decade, transforming daily life and commerce for millions, it’s a revolution that has left behind perhaps two thirds of its people.

Poor or no reception outside the towns helps explain why the continent’s mobile penetration, in terms of the percentage of the population using the service, is far lower than previously thought, and the cost of providing that service to impoverished, sparsely populated areas remains prohibitive.

In rural Sierra Leone, a country where GDP per capita is less than $ 400 a year, money doesn’t grow on trees, but mobile reception can, says street trader Abass Bangura in Freetown, the West African country’s capital.

In parts of Tonkolili, a district in the center of the country, or Kailahun to the east, it’s the only way you can get reception, he said.

“You climb stick, like mango tree, before you have network,” he said.

In South Sudan, the world’s newest state, it’s a similar story. Less than a year old, the country already has five mobile operators, and its capital, Juba, is teeming with giant billboards advertising mobile phones, but go just a few kilometers beyond a handful of fast-growing towns, and cell phones become useless.

Multiple SIM cards help users navigate patchy network coverage and take advantage of price promotions from rival operators.

That is typical of much of the continent.

With a population of just over a billion people, Africa has over 700 million SIM cards, but with most users owning at least two cards, penetration is only about 33 percent, according to a study released in November by industry research firm Wireless Intelligence.

“If we look at the fact that the rural population of Africa is about 60-70 percent of the population, and if we look at the degree of penetration into the rural market, it’s very, very low,” said Spiwe Chireka of advisory firm IDC.

In Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, there are more than enough SIM cards for everyone, but penetration is only 61 percent, according to a 2012 study by research firm Informa.

The average mobile phone user in Nigeria owns an average of 2.39 SIM cards. Globally, only Indonesia is higher, with an average of 2.62 SIM cards per user.

Even in Africa’s biggest economy, South Africa, SIM numbers comfortably exceed the population, but given the number of people using multiple devices, actual population penetration is closer to 80 percent, says market leader Vodacom.

“You’ve got a lot of people buying SIMs, but maybe not enough phones to put it in,” said Olayemi Jinadu, an executive with the Sierra Leone arm of Indian telco Bharti Airtel.

COST VERSUS BENEFIT

The unserved rural millions could represent another growth opportunity for Africa-focused telcos like South Africa’s MTN Group, Bharti Airtel and Kuwait’s Zain, but first they have to figure out a cost-effective way to push into sub-Saharan Africa’s remote corners.

“There’s great potential, but the big concern for us is operational costs,” said Andre Claasson, chief operating officer at Zain South Sudan.

In rural Africa, the cost of running a network tower often exceeds the revenue it reaps. Fuel is typically about 40 percent of a tower’s operating cost, and in remote areas companies burn more diesel by bringing fuel to towers than is used powering them.

Although roughly 73 percent of Africa’s land has cell phone coverage, according to market research firm IDC, that still leaves vast tracts of rural Africa without network access.

Africa has 170,000 mobile towers now and needs another 60,000, according to tower company IHS Group, which at an average $ 200,000 each means an outlay of $ 12 billion.

“If you are an operator asked to spend $ 200,000 to build a site and another $ 2,000 a month to run it in an area with 500 people herding cows, it doesn’t make sense,” said Issam Darwish, IHS’s chief executive.

Average revenue per user is also low. It can vary between $ 1 and $ 10 per month, much lower than in developed markets such as the United States, which delivered ARPU of $ 51 in 2012 or Britain, $ 27.

Bharti, sub-Saharan Africa’s third-largest telecom group, says it makes $ 6.40 per user in Africa, which is higher than its home Indian market, where it makes only $ 3.30 a month, but the cost of operating in Africa is much higher and there isn’t a comparable middle class ready and able to spend more.

“You either have a handful of people in the affluent part of the society or you have lots of people who can’t afford the services,” its Chairman Sunil Mittal said last year.

Operators can save money by sharing towers, but even then, some sites will never make sense without government subsidies, analysts say.

African expansion has not been cheap for telcos. Over the past five years, mobile operators have spent a combined $ 16.5 billion on capital expenditure in the key markets of South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Senegal and Ghana, according to Wireless Intelligence.

Bharti has earmarked $ 1.5 billion for capex this year, while fourth-placed France Telecom is spending $ 9.3 billion between 2010 and 2015.

Spare cash is increasingly rare for debt-strapped European telecoms operators, which are cutting their dividends to cope with falling revenues and network upgrade costs in their home markets.

Some African regulators have set up funds to promote coverage, to which operators are expected to contribute.

In Sierra Leone, the Universal Access Development Fund (UADF) is yet to subsidize the cost of putting up a single mast, though it has been active for several years. The regulator complains networks do not contribute the fees they should.

“If we can’t subsidize, they’ll never erect towers there,” said Bashir Kamara, Project Manager at UADF.

($ 1 = 0.6350 British pounds)

(Additional reporting by Hereward Holland in Juba and Chijioke Ohuocha in Lagos; Editing by David Dolan and Will Waterman)

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Keri Russell's The Americans: Are You Hooked?

TV Watch

By Tim Nudd

01/31/2013 at 10:25 AM EST

Keri Russell in The Americans

FX

She's come a long way since Felicity.

That much was clear in the very first scene of The Americans on Wednesday night, as Keri Russell was shown in an extremely compromising position with a Department of Justice agent. Long gone is that sweet college girl from the '90s.

In the new FX drama, Russell, 36, and Matthew Rhys play suburban parents who are actually KGB agents, living in the early-'80s Washington, D.C.

Their lives are complicated. The husband is growing fond of American culture, while Russell's character is steadfastly devoted to the Soviet Union. An FBI agent just moved in down the road. And another KGB agent has defected, putting other agents in danger.

The gritty, suspenseful period piece has been getting good reviews. But did you watch on Wednesday? What did you think of it. Tell us below.

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Sex to burn calories? Authors expose obesity myths

Fact or fiction? Sex burns a lot of calories. Snacking or skipping breakfast is bad. School gym classes make a big difference in kids' weight.

All are myths or at least presumptions that may not be true, say researchers who reviewed the science behind some widely held obesity beliefs and found it lacking.

Their report in Thursday's New England Journal of Medicine says dogma and fallacies are detracting from real solutions to the nation's weight problems.

"The evidence is what matters," and many feel-good ideas repeated by well-meaning health experts just don't have it, said the lead author, David Allison, a biostatistician at the University of Alabama at Birmingham.

Independent researchers say the authors have some valid points. But many of the report's authors also have deep financial ties to food, beverage and weight-loss product makers — the disclosures take up half a page of fine print in the journal.

"It raises questions about what the purpose of this paper is" and whether it's aimed at promoting drugs, meal replacement products and bariatric surgery as solutions, said Marion Nestle, a New York University professor of nutrition and food studies.

"The big issues in weight loss are how you change the food environment in order for people to make healthy choices," such as limits on soda sizes and marketing junk food to children, she said. Some of the myths they cite are "straw men" issues, she said.

But some are pretty interesting.

Sex, for instance. Not that people do it to try to lose weight, but claims that it burns 100 to 300 calories are common, Allison said. Yet the only study that scientifically measured the energy output found that sex lasted six minutes on average — "disappointing, isn't it?" — and burned a mere 21 calories, about as much as walking, he said.

That's for a man. The study was done in 1984 and didn't measure the women's experience.

Among the other myths or assumptions the authors cite, based on their review of the most rigorous studies on each topic:

—Small changes in diet or exercise lead to large, long-term weight changes. Fact: The body adapts to changes, so small steps to cut calories don't have the same effect over time, studies suggest. At least one outside expert agrees with the authors that the "small changes" concept is based on an "oversimplified" 3,500-calorie rule, that adding or cutting that many calories alters weight by one pound.

—School gym classes have a big impact on kids' weight. Fact: Classes typically are not long, often or intense enough to make much difference.

—Losing a lot of weight quickly is worse than losing a little slowly over the long term. Fact: Although many dieters regain weight, those who lose a lot to start with often end up at a lower weight than people who drop more modest amounts.

—Snacking leads to weight gain. Fact: No high quality studies support that, the authors say.

—Regularly eating breakfast helps prevent obesity. Fact: Two studies found no effect on weight and one suggested that the effect depended on whether people were used to skipping breakfast or not.

—Setting overly ambitious goals leads to frustration and less weight loss. Fact: Some studies suggest people do better with high goals.

Some things may not have the strongest evidence for preventing obesity but are good for other reasons, such as breastfeeding and eating plenty of fruits and vegetables, the authors write. And exercise helps prevent a host of health problems regardless of whether it helps a person shed weight.

"I agree with most of the points" except the authors' conclusions that meal replacement products and diet drugs work for battling obesity, said Dr. David Ludwig, a prominent obesity research with Boston Children's Hospital who has no industry ties. Most weight-loss drugs sold over the last century had to be recalled because of serious side effects, so "there's much more evidence of failure than success," he said.

___

Online:

Obesity info: http://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/trends.html

New England Journal: http://www.nejm.org

___

Marilynn Marchione can be followed at http://twitter.com/MMarchioneAP

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Wall Street flat after mixed data; Qualcomm lifts Nasdaq

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks were little changed on Thursday as investors mulled a mixed bag of economic data, though earnings from Qualcomm helped lift the Nasdaq.

Data showed the labor market improved modestly; the number of Americans filing new claims last week for unemployment benefits rose, beating expectations and bouncing off five-year lows in the prior week.

That comes ahead of Friday's payrolls report, which is expected to show employers added 160,000 jobs in January after an increase of 155,000 in December.

A separate report showed incomes climbed in December by the most in eight years, in an encouraging sign that the economy may be propelled forward through consumer spending.

A gauge of business activity in the U.S. Midwest showed a pick up in January from a more than three-year low in December as new orders jumped. The report followed a disappointing survey from the mid-Atlantic and New York regions.

Qualcomm Inc gained 5.9 percent to $67.25 as the top boost to the Nasdaq 100 <.ndx> after the world's leading supplier of chips for cellphones beat analysts' expectations for quarterly profit and revenue, and raised its targets for the year.

The worst performer on the Nasdaq was Facebook Inc , which lost 5.9 percent to $29.39. The social network company said Wednesday it doubled its mobile advertising revenue in the fourth quarter; however, that growth trailed some of Wall Street's most aggressive estimates.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> gained 22.88 points, or 0.16 percent, to 13,933.30. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> gained 0.21 points, or 0.01 percent, to 1,502.17. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> gained 8.43 points, or 0.27 percent, to 3,150.73.

The S&P 500 <.spx> has gained 5.3 percent in January, after legislators in Washington temporarily sidestepped a "fiscal cliff" of automatic tax increases and spending cuts that could have derailed the economic recovery, and amid improving economic data and better-than-expected corporate earnings.

But the benchmark index has stalled recently and is virtually flat for the week, hovering near the 1,500 mark, as investors look for fresh trading incentives to justify further gains.

"Unfortunately it's still a mixed picture, it appears we are just getting a lot of conflicting data right now," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank in Chicago.

"There is certainly a lot of information coming out this week - a lot of economic data, a lot of earnings and of course we have the employment number looming Friday, so with 1,500 right here, my guess is there is just not enough conviction to push us substantially higher yet."

United Parcel Service Inc lost 1.6 percent to $79.95 after the world's largest parcel delivery reported fourth-quarter earnings below analysts' estimates on Thursday and forecast weaker-than-expected profit for 2013.

But the Dow Jones Transportation average <.djt> gained 0.5 percent as Kirby Corp added 7.6 percent to $71.57 and Ryder Systems Inc climbed 4.7 percent to $56.79 after posting quarterly results.

Thomson Reuters data through Thursday morning shows that of the 231 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings this season, 69.3 percent have exceeded expectations, a higher proportion than over the past four quarters and above the average since 1994.

Overall, S&P 500 fourth-quarter earnings are forecast to have risen 3.7 percent. That's above a 1.9 percent forecast at the start of the earnings season, but well below a 9.9 percent profit growth forecast on October 1, the data showed.

WMS Industries Inc surged 52.5 percent to $24.96 after the company agreed to be acquired by Scientific Games Corp for $26 per share in cash. Scientific Games jumped 19 percent to $10.63.

(Editing by Bernadette Baum)

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India Ink: No Knowledge of Pakistan Complaints, Indian Officials Say

Following the recent killings of Indian and Pakistani soldiers near the Kashmir border, a local newspaper reported classified United Nations documents show that the cycle of violence between troops of the two countries has continued despite the cease-fire in 2003.

The Hindu, a national English-language daily newspaper, said Wednesday that Pakistan has repeatedly complained to the United Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan about the killings of at least 18 of its soldiers, including four beheadings, by Indian forces between 2000 and 2011. The United Nations group was set up in 1949 to monitor cease-fire violations between the two countries.

Indian officials denied the report on Wednesday.

In the worst flare-up since the 2003 cease-fire, Indian and Pakistani troops exchanged gunfire near the Line of Control earlier this month, resulting in deaths on both sides. At the time, India accused Pakistan of beheading one of its soldiers, a charge Pakistan denies.

Among the complaints it filed, Pakistan alleged in 2003 that Indian forces decapitated one of its soldiers, the Hindu said.

The Hindu also reported that Pakistan also complained that Indian forces decapitated two civilians during a massacre in the village of Bandala in 1998, which claimed 22 civilian lives.

Indian army spokesperson Col. Jagdeep Dahiya described the article as “erroneous and speculative.”

“The Indian Army is highly professional and does not indulge in un-soldierly acts as alleged in the article,” he said. “The very fact that Pakistan has not raised such issues in bilateral interactions since 1998 bears testimony to allegations leveled against the Indian army being misleading,” he said.

Col. Dahiya also said that there is an existing mechanism to regulate conflict near the line of control between India and Pakistan. “The article seems to have been based on one-sided allegations made by the Pakistan army to UNMOGIP,” he said, an organization whose status is questionable.

Sitanshu Kar, spokesman for the Indian Ministry of Defense, said that he had no knowledge of Pakistan’s complaints to the United Nations group, and that he had not been contacted for The Hindu article. “It’s the first time I’m hearing about this,” he said. “I have not seen any such document.”

Syed Akbaruddin, the spokesman for the India’s Ministry of External Affairs, said that India did not have any formal exchange with the United Nations Military Observer Group. “We feel that Unmogip has outlived its relevance,” he said. The country’s relationship with the organization ended after India and Pakistan entered the 1972 Simla Agreement, in which both countries said they would resolve their disputes bilaterally.

Mr. Akbaruddin added that Pakistan had not raised these complaints directly with India. “Frankly, this is not a discussion we have had diplomatically,” he said.

An official at the United Nations organization’s office in Srinagar refused to comment on the report, or whether such complaints by Pakistan had been received. Calls made to the group’s office in Delhi were not answered.

Lt. Gen. Baljit Singh Jaswal, who from October 2009 to December 2010 led the Northern Command, which supervises troops in Jammu and Kashmir, said that India had engaged in no cross-border violations during that time.

General Jaswal, now retired, added that Pakistan had violated the cease-fire “numerous times” and that India had exchanged retaliatory fire.

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RIM starts glitzy BlackBerry 10 launch parties

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Research In Motion Ltd on Wednesday kicked off a string of global launch parties for a long-delayed line of smartphones it says will put it on the comeback trail in a market it once dominated.

The new BlackBerry 10 phones will compete with Apple‘s iPhone and devices using Google‘s Android technology, both of which have soared above the BlackBerry in a competitive market.

They boast fast browsers, new features, smart cameras and, unlike previous BlackBerry models, enter the market primed with a large app library.

(Writing by Janet Guttsman; Editing by Frank McGurty)

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Kate's Perfect Nose Inspires Women to Have Plastic Surgery

By Andrea Billups

01/30/2013 at 10:00 AM EST

Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge

REX USA; AFP/Getty; REX USA

The dresses she wears fly off the shelves. Her hair is the envy of women around the world. And she's even helped boost sales of hosiery in the U.K.

So is it any wonder that women also want Kate's nose?

British plastic surgeons say requests for the Duchess of Cambridge's "near perfect" and petite nose have tripled since 2011, according to the Daily Mail, which has interviewed several women who said having a similar eye-catching royal profile was exactly the look they sought as they underwent rhinoplasty.

"Her nose is straight with a cute, rounded tip and is perfectly in proportion to her face," plastic surgeon Maurizio Persico said. "This gives Kate an attractive and striking profile."

"Plus, she always looks happy and confident in photos, which is especially appealing to women whose own appearance makes them unhappy – those who feel self-conscious about larger or crooked noses, which they believe dominate their faces," Persico added.

According to psychologist Carmen Lefevre, who studies facial attributes and behavior at the University of St. Andrews, it's not just because Kate's a princess that her nose inspires envy.

"The symmetry of Kate's nose, the angle between her lip and the tip of her nose and the minimal amount of nostril on show, are all near-perfect," Lefevre told the paper.

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Soldier with new arms determined to be independent

BALTIMORE (AP) — After weeks of round-the-clock medical care, Brendan Marrocco insisted on rolling his own wheelchair into a news conference using his new transplanted arms. Then he brushed his hair to one side.

Such simple tasks would go unnoticed in most patients. But for Marrocco, who lost all four limbs while serving in Iraq, these little actions demonstrate how far he's come only six weeks after getting a double-arm transplant.

Wounded by a roadside bomb in 2009, the former soldier said he could get by without legs, but he hated living without arms.

"Not having arms takes so much away from you. Even your personality, you know. You talk with your hands. You do everything with your hands, and when you don't have that, you're kind of lost for a while," the 26-year-old New Yorker told reporters Tuesday at Johns Hopkins Hospital.

Doctors don't want him using his new arms too much yet, but his gritty determination to regain independence was one of the chief reasons he was chosen to receive the surgery, which has been performed in the U.S. only seven times.

That's the message Marrocco said he has for other wounded soldiers.

"Just not to give up hope. You know, life always gets better, and you're still alive," he said. "And to be stubborn. There's a lot of people who will say you can't do something. Just be stubborn and do it anyway. Work your ass off and do it."

Dr. W.P. Andrew Lee, head of the team that conducted the surgery, said the new arms could eventually provide much of the same function as his original arms and hands. Another double-arm transplant patient can now use chopsticks and tie his shoes.

Lee said Marrocco's recovery has been remarkable, and the transplant is helping to "restore physical and psychological well-being."

Tuesday's news conference was held to mark a milestone in his recovery — the day he was to be discharged from the hospital.

Next comes several years of rehabilitation, including physical therapy that is going to become more difficult as feeling returns to the arms.

Before the surgery, he had been living with his older brother in a specially equipped home on New York's Staten Island that had been built with the help of several charities. Shortly after moving in, he said it was "a relief to not have to rely on other people so much."

The home was heavily damaged by Superstorm Sandy last fall.

"We'll get it back together. We've been through a lot worse than that," his father, Alex Marrocco, said.

For the next few months, Marrocco plans to live with his brother in an apartment near the hospital.

The former infantryman said he can already move the elbow on his left arm and rotate it a little bit, but there hasn't been much movement yet for his right arm, which was transplanted higher up.

Marrocco's mother, Michelle Marrocco, said he can't hug her yet, so he brushes his left arm against her face.

The first time he moved his left arm was a complete surprise, an involuntary motion while friends were visiting him in the hospital, he said.

"I had no idea what was going through my mind. I was with my friends, and it happened by accident," he recalled. "One of my friends said 'Did you do that on purpose?' And I didn't know I did it."

Marrocco's operation also involved a technical feat not tried in previous cases, Lee said in an interview after the news conference.

A small part of Marrocco's left forearm remained just below his elbow, and doctors transplanted a whole new forearm around and on top of it, then rewired nerves to serve the old and new muscles in that arm.

"We wanted to save his joint. In the unlucky event we would lose the transplant, we still wanted him to have the elbow joint," Lee said.

He also explained why leg transplants are not done for people missing those limbs — "it's not very practical." That's because nerves regrow at best about an inch a month, so it would be many years before a transplanted leg was useful.

Even if movement returned, a patient might lack sensation on the soles of the feet, which would be unsafe if the person stepped on sharp objects and couldn't feel the pain.

And unlike prosthetic arms and hands, which many patients find frustrating, the ones for legs are good. That makes the risks of a transplant not worth taking.

"It's premature" until there are better ways to help nerves regrow, Lee said.

Now Marrocco, who was the first soldier to survive losing all four limbs in the Iraq War, is looking forward to getting behind the wheel of his black 2006 Dodge Charger and hand-cycling a marathon.

Asked if he could one day throw a football, Dr. Jaimie Shores said sure, but maybe not like Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco.

"Thanks for having faith in me," Marrocco interjected, drawing laughter from the crowd.

His mother said Marrocco has always been "a tough cookie."

"He's not changed that, and he's just taken it and made it an art form," Michelle Marrocco said. "He's never going to stop. He's going to be that boy I knew was going to be a pain in my butt forever. And he's going to show people how to live their lives."

___

Associated Press Chief Medical Writer Marilynn Marchione in Milwaukee and AP writer David Dishneau in Hagerstown, Md., contributed to this report.

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Wall Street edges higher, Amazon offsets GDP

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks were flat on Wednesday as an unexpectedly weak read on fourth-quarter economic activity was offset by strong results at Boeing and Amazon.com.

Equities continued to shrug off negative news, with the S&P 500 staying above 1,500, a level that market technicians call an inflection point that will determine the overall direction in the near term.

The first read showed gross domestic product fell 0.1 percent, far below expectations for growth of 1.1 percent. However, private sector employment topped forecasts, with the ADP National Employment report showing 192,000 jobs added in January, higher than the 165,000 expectation.

"The GDP report is the only negative shock we've had in a while, and it isn't terrible since it showed increases in business and consumer spending, which is what everyone wants to drive growth from here," said Randy Frederick, managing director of active trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas.

Deeper losses were prevented by a rise in both Boeing Co and Amazon.com Inc , which rallied after earnings beat expectations, continuing a trend this quarter of high-profile names advancing after results.

Amazon.com Inc rose 6.7 percent to $277.87 a day after reporting strong revenue growth. Boeing rose 0.5 percent to $74 after its results. The Dow component also said that while production continued on its Dreamliner jet, which has had technical problems recently, it was suspending delivery until clearance was granted by the Federal Aviation Administration.

Thomson Reuters data showed that of the 174 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings this season, 68.4 percent have been above analyst expectations, which is a higher proportion than over the past four quarters and above the average since 1994.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> was up 5.50 points, or 0.04 percent, at 13,959.92. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was up 1.09 points, or 0.07 percent, at 1,508.93. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was up 5.73 points, or 0.18 percent, at 3,159.39.

The S&P 500 is on track to post its best monthly performance since October 2011 as investors poured $55 billion in new cash into stock mutual funds and exchange-traded funds in January, the biggest monthly inflow on record.

The Dow Jones industrial average has been flirting with 14,000, a level it hasn't seen since October 2007. Many analysts have said markets may need to take a pause.

"I'm neutral on markets at these levels, even though there aren't a lot of negatives out there," Frederick said. "At some point there will be a pullback, but the underlying trends remain strong and I think it is possible the S&P could hit a new all-time high sometime this quarter."

The all-time intraday high for the S&P 500 is 1,576.09, reached October 11, 2007.

The Federal Reserve concludes a two-day meeting on Wednesday, and while the central bank is expected to keep monetary policy on a steady path, intensive debates continue behind the scenes over when the controversial bond-buying program should be curtailed.

Chesapeake Energy Corp rose 11 percent to $21.11 as the S&P's biggest percentage gainer, a day after saying Aubrey McClendon would step down as chief executive after a year in which a series of Reuters investigations triggered civil and criminal probes of the second-largest U.S. natural gas producer.

(Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Nick Zieminski)

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The Lede Blog: Syria President's Wife Pregnant, Lebanese Newspaper Says

Just as tens of thousands of Syrians are scrambling to get themselves and their children out of war-ravaged Syria, President Bashar al-Assad and his glamorous wife, Asma, apparently are taking the opposite approach. They are having a baby, according to a Lebanese newspaper sympathetic to the Assad family.

The newspaper, Al Akhbar, dropped this news on Monday as a tangential reference in a fawning article describing a visit with President Assad in Damascus, in which he predicts victory in an increasingly bloody insurgency that is almost two years old. “On a personal level, the man seems calm and in control,” said an English-language version of the article on the newspaper’s Web site. “His confidence stands out. Also, there’s the news of the pregnancy of his wife, Asma, which could not be dealt with as a simple personal matter between a couple.” The Assads already have three young children.

The Al Akhbar account provided no further insight into the pregnancy or due date. But the reference seemed to corroborate rumors that Mrs. Assad had conceived in June, which was reported in November by Al Bawaba, an Amman-based news Web site. Mrs. Assad, a 37-year-old former investment banker who was born in London, has not been seen publicly in months. Rumors have repeatedly surfaced that she has left Syria for personal safety reasons.

If the June conception rumors are correct, the Assads expanded their family during some of the worst mayhem in the country. Mr. Assad said for the first time that month that the country was in a state of war. He further antagonized his former friendly neighbor Turkey when Syrian gunners shot down a Turkish warplane over the Mediterranean. A rash of high-ranking military officers defected in Turkey, and a Syrian Air Force pilot flew his MiG to Jordan and sought asylum. And the United Nations cease-fire monitoring mission in Syria was suspended because of escalating violence.

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